Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, is running as the relatively most social conservative candidate. Even though Santorum lost his last political race in the 2006 U.S. Senate election to current Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D) by a landslide 59%-40% margin, he is somewhat relevant again. While Pennsylvania has been mostly a blue state in the past, a 19% margin is a lot to lose by. Also, his campaign has basically been on life support ever since its started. He's had constant trouble raising money throughout, enough to the point where he couldn't really compete in Florida or South Carolina and is planning to sit out Arizona. He also wasn't relevant at all until just before Iowa. However, this is just the kind of underdog story that Americans love. Now, Santorum is a co-frontrunner or at least chief rival to Romney and has somewhat lovable qualities such as his sweater-vests and his constant smiling.
Rick Santorum has been the beneficiary of a lot of luck this election season. He surged at the right time in Iowa (unlike Perry, Bachmann; although he was unlucky when he wasn't declared the Iowa winner right away), he isn't weighed down by personal baggage (Gingrich, Herman Cain), and he didn't quit early when the going looked tough (Pawlenty). Also, he wasn't enough of a frontrunner when Romney's attack machine SuperPac was landing blow after blow on Newt. Now, because of the existing media narrative that Romney can only attack and depress voter turnout to win, Romney's attack machine is now somewhat neutered just when Santorum is becoming Romney's chief rival.
Rick Santorum reminds me of 2008's Mike Huckabee, who could be the biggest loser of the 2012 primary because he didn't jump in when the electorate was looking for a credible, honest, likable conservative. Plus, Mike Huckabee is Southern Baptist, a core of the GOP base, while Rick Santorum is Catholic so Huckabee would definitely have had the advantage over Santorum. Regardless, Santorum has now taken up the 2008 Huckabee as the nice guy, pro-family, populist, social conservative and the main counter to Mitt Romney's establishment, East-Coast country club aura. The main difference between 2012 Santorum and 2008 Huckabee is the lack of major rivals for Santorum. Santorum only has Gingrich to contend with but Gingrich is a highly flawed candidate who has had 3 divorces and been extensively bloodied by Romney's big bucks.
The main danger for Rick is that he really hasn't been held to the microscope of public scrutiny. Many of his past positions are a little too much: see here and here. He also was a Washington insider, 2-term senator who voted for a lot of pork-barrel spending. While I'm not personally against but a lot of other people are.
Maybe its just me, but gay marriage is not the end of the world and Rick Santorum's fascination with this while understandable because of the public opinion of his supporters, is a little worrisome. In fact, they have gay marriage in New York, where I now live, and I can honestly say that life is no different. There are no businesses seeking to flee the state, all the kids haven't turned gay, and I don't think that heterosexual married couples feel too differently about their own marriages. If anything, it has helped stimulate small businesses like wedding photography, catering, florists, etc. and created opportunities for lots of awkward conversations between gay partners of which one of whom might have commitment issues.
If I were I betting man, I would think that Santorum would get the nomination. He currently has the momentum in Michigan (one of Romney's "home states") and a split with Romney with Romney taking Arizona and Santorum taking Michigan would be a moral victory for Santorum. Santorum should be competitive in the Washington (my home state) caucuses with Romney and Paul. Super Tuesday represents Santorum's best chance to take control of the race. I personally think that Santorum will take the big primary states (Ohio, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma), these hold a lot of the delegates in play. Romney will ilikely win the smaller New England states (Massachusetts, Vermont). There are also small caucus states such as Idaho, North Dakota, and Alaska. These were the states won by 2008 Romney and probably shouldn't matter too much. I wouldn't be surprised if Paul, Romney, or Santorum won any combination of these three states.
After Super Tuesday, the race will get more interesting as every state will be in play and have great importance, like the 2008 Democratic race. I also think that Santorum is the biggest threat to Obama's reelection given that Santorum is still largely undefined in public opinion and therefore, has the highest ceiling of any of the remaining GOP candidates.
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