Update on 2012 GOP Race: Now until Super Tuesday

This is a post designed to get us caught up to what has happened so far in the GOP race and what will happen between now until next Tuesday.

What has happened so far?:
Mitt Romney won NH (primary), FL (primary), NV (caucus), ME (caucus)
Rick Santorum won IA (caucus), MN (caucus), CO (caucus), MO (non-binding primary)*
Newt Gingrich won SC (primary)
Ron Paul finished second in NH, MN, ME
*MO will hold caucuses later to determine allocation of delegates

Santorum has shown strength in the Midwest.  Romney is strong in the Northeast, states with a lot of Mormons, and Florida, a state with a lot of Northeast transplants.  Gingrich has won the only state in the traditional South.  Ron Paul does well in libertarian minded states and caucus states.



Before Super Tuesday:
Arizona (primary): Romney should win this state easily because (1) of its large Mormon population and (2) Arizona is winner-take-all for delegates which discourages the other candidates from competing in the state.  My prediction: Romney

Michigan (primary): Strength vs. Strength here.  It's Mitt Romney's home state advantage vs. Rick Santorum's Midwest charm.  This is the most important state until Super Tuesday and could be a dispositive state for the rest of the primaries.  If Santorum wins, he will have the momentum going into Super Tuesday.  If Romney wins, he'll re-establish himself has the dominant front-runner in the race.  Right now, most polls show Santorum with a slight lead, but this could easily change since we are still 2 weeks away from the actual vote and the GOP primary has been very volatile so far.  This is about whether the margin from Santorum's strength in the rural areas is greater or lesser than Romney's margin from the Detroit suburbs.  Smaller metropolitan areas such as Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Flint may play a crucial role in who ultimately wins MI.  Mitt's SuperPAC is very well funded and should be able to launch a lot of pro-Romney, anti-Santorum ads.  Romney has shown that when the going gets tough, he gets going (see Florida) and I think he makes a good attempt again in a must win state.  However, Santorum is not like Newt and doesn't have much to punch and Republicans in general seem to prefer a non-elitist sweater vest wearing dude to an anti-dog Romney.  Santorum has raised $3 million this past week and should be able to counter Romney's barrage, unlike Newt in Florida.  My prediction: Santorum

Washington (caucus):  In case anyone is confused, this is the state, not the District of Columbia.  It is also my home state! WA is a wild-card because it is a caucus state.  I wouldn't be surprised if any of Paul, Santorum, or Romney wins.  Santorum should run strong in eastern Washington.  Ron Paul should be strong in rural Western Washington and Seattle itself.  Washington has a LOT of computer nerds and computer nerds are the biggest Ron Paul fans out there.  Romney has to run up large margins in the Seattle suburbs.  Washington also has a large Mormon population, which will help Romney.  However, this state reminds me a lot of Colorado and given how gay marriage just became law in Washington, I expect social conservatives to get very involved in politics.  If the WA GOP is smart (the jury is still out), then I expect them to collect signatures for a referendum on gay marriage at the caucus sites.  My prediction: Santorum


Super Tuesday:
Alaska (caucus): Who cares? 14,000 Alaskan Republicans and no one else. My prediction: Santorum

Georgia (primary):  This is a race between Santorum and Gingrich.  Romney sucks in the Deep South and has no chance here.  Georgia is one of the GOPs most important states and has a lot of delegates.  It is also Gingrich's home state and his best chance to pull out a win and stop the bleeding on his campaign.  My prediction: Santorum

Idaho (caucus): Who cares? Well, there are a lot of Mormons in Idaho.  My prediction: Romney

Massachusetts (primary):  Romney was governor here.  He also won MA's neighboring states, NH and ME.  Romney should win this handily.  My prediction: Romney

North Dakota (caucus):  Who cares?  Notice a pattern of people not caring about small caucus states.  The North Dakota GOP is very similar to the MN GOP.  This should be good news for Santorum.  My prediction: Santorum

Ohio (primary): Ohio is a very important general election state.  The Republicans basically have to carry Ohio in order to win.  This state is probably the most important state on Super Tuesday.  If Gingrich is able to win both GA and OH (very doubtful), he will give his campaign some new life and win back some supporters who had defected to Santorum.  Ohio has a bit of everything for the GOP, super poor hillbilly types, evangelical Christians, middle to upper middle class suburban types.  Santorum needs a win to close the delegate map with Romney and to boost his credentials as the conservatives' preferred choice.  Romney needs to win to show that he can win in a state that has a fairly conservative GOP.  Gingrich needs a win because....well...he sucks and needs a win.  Santorum should do well in the suburbs of Cincinnati and in the southeastern part of the state.  Romney needs big margins near Cleveland and Columbus.  The main battle for the state will be in the western part of the state between Toledo and Cincinnati; Santorum has the advantage here because of the numerous evangelical voters.  My prediction: Santorum

Oklahoma (primary):  OK's voting patterns are very similar to that of a deep south state.  My prediction: Santorum

Tennessee (primary): TN is the most evangelical state in the Union.  This is bad news for Romney's Mormonism.  My prediction: Santorum

Vermont (primary): Vermont is another New England state bordering MA. Romney should win easily.  My prediction: Romney

Virginia (primary):  Romney should be kissing his lucky stars.  Santorum and Newt are not on the ballot here and there are no write-in votes allow.  It is a contest between Romney and Paul and given how Paul's support is generally pretty limited, Romney should win this handily.  My prediction: Romney

To summarize: for those of you who are news junkies watching election coverage
States that are super important: MI, OH
States that are somewhat important: WA, GA, TN, OK, AZ
States that aren't important: ND, AK, ID, MA, VT, VA

If this analysis largely holds true, Romney and Santorum will split the states fairly evenly but Santorum will have won the important ones.

Here are three caveats to the above analysis: (1) caucuses are more unpredictable than primaries since fewer people vote, turnout can fluctuate wildly, and caucuses require more dedicated supporters, (2) Romney is better suited to compete nationwide for Super Tuesday since he has more money, more campaign surrogates, and more organization.  However, the other candidates are lucky because 2012 Super Tuesday is much smaller than previous Super Tuesdays, and (3) a lot can change between this post and the different election dates, one of Romney's sons could come out of the closet, Santorum could have solicited prostitutes, Gingrich could make a "Cap" Rooney comeback. 

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