We're a little over 8 months away from the 2012 Presidential Election. I've decided to do my first preview of the general election map. Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and then. Even though the Republican nominee has not been picked yet, the identity of the nominee won't affect the map too much.
My Ratings:
Solid Blue/Red: states that are not going to be contested at all
Lean Blue/Red: one party is favored but could easily lose
Tossup: its completely up for grabs
It takes 270 electoral votes to win:
Solid Blue States: 196 electoral votes
HI (4)-could be close? NOT
WA (12)
OR (7)-only in the GOP's wet dreams
CA (55)
MN (10)-only in the GOP's wet dreams
IL (20)
DC (3)
MD (10)
DE (3)
NJ (14)
NY (29)
CT (7)
MA (11)
RI (4)
VT (3)
ME (4)-Republicans could pick up an electoral vote here since Maine splits their electoral vote by congressional district.
Solid Red States: 154 electoral votes
ID (4)
UT (6)
WY (3)
AK (3)
MT (3)-In better days, Obama could make this competitive.
ND (3)-In better days, Obama could make this competitive.
SD (3)-In better days, Obama could make this competitive.
NE (5)
KS (6)
OK (7)-Rapidly going towards Team Red.
TX (38)
AR (6)-Rapidly going towards Team Red.
LA (8)-Rapidly going towards Team Red.
IN (11)-Republicans won't let Indiana slip away this time.
KY (8)
TN (11)-Rapidly going towards Team Red.
MS (6)
AL (9)
SC (9)-Don't be surprised if South Carolina is competitive for the Dems soon.
WV (5)-Al Gore lost this state for the Dems with all that anti-gun talk.
Lean Blue States: 50 electoral votes (246 including Solid Blue States)
PA (20): This is a must win for Obama. He should be able to with the increasingly Democratic Philly metro area which has over 40% of the state's population. There are enough other Democratic areas throughout the state (Scranton, Pittsburgh, Erie, College Station, Allentown) to carry Obama to victory. In order for the GOP to win, they have to be able to compete in the Philly suburbs in Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware counties. They also have to ramp up margins in the south central area of the state, near Harrisburg.
MI (16): The Republicans have been shooting themselves on the foot in Michigan. Their primary had a lot of bad moments for both Santorum and Romney. Also, their Senate nominee, Pete Hoekstra, is a dummy. GOP turnout was also down for the MI primary from 2008 despite being the only game in town this time around. In order for the Republican to win, he has to compete hard in Oakland and Macomb counties, this will be difficult to say the least.
NM (5): In a little known fact, George W. Bush won NM in 2004 because of his surprise support among Hispanic voters. Obama should not have too much trouble.
CO (9): In many of the above "Lean Blue" states, the Democrats did very poorly in 2010. They held their ground in Colorado by winning both the governorship and the Senate race there. Turnout in the CO GOP caucus was also down. This state is trending towards Team Blue and has the demographics for a blue state.
Lean Red States: 37 electoral votes (191 including Solid Red States)
GA (16): Obama wants to win this through higher turnout with Black voters and from Northern Transplants in the Atlanta region. However, Obama needs to do better in the suburbs to win GA. That being said, Georgia is the Dems best chance at a Deep South state. South Carolina being the second best. LA, MS, and AL are heading towards Team Red at every level of government.
AZ (11): Although Arizona has a large Hispanic population, its white population is more conservative than whites in CO, NV, or NM. Dems need to get a higher percentage of the moderate white voter in order to win this state.
MO (10): Missouri used to be the main bell-weather state. However, the GOP has continued to do better and better given the Dems inability to win outside of St. Louis and Kansas City. The Dems need to do better among former Ike Skelton and Dick Gephardt supporters, aka the white working class. The new Democratic coalition is based upon racial minorities and college-educated whites. However, in order to compete in states like Missouri, they have to reconnect with their previous supporters, the white working class. It's important to remind these voters about just how much the Republicans want to put the squeeze on wages and benefits of the working person in the name of "efficiency" and "competitiveness". Most Dems I know seem to think that these voters are impossible because of tax cuts, religion, and racism. However, I think that they've abandoned Team Blue because Team Blue demonizes them as being ignorant and racists while most of the white working class people are very nice and have good intelligence. The white working class likely thinks Team Blue abandoned them by the constant scolding about religion and guns and for programs like affirmative action which hurts the white working class while not really affecting the white upper middle class. Unlike what the talking heads on TV think, I don't think people are super entrenched in their views. It is important to not marginalize people and to let people know that you are trying to help. With those two qualities, many philosophical differences can be smoothed over. Hillary Clinton is the type of candidate who could do this well, not Barack Obama. Dems in the Hillary Clinton mold can better compete in states like WV, KY, and MO.
Tossup: 91 electoral votes
FL (29): The GOP convention is being held in Tampa. The winner of the state will have to win the I-4 corridor in the middle of the state. In my opinion, Florida is a lean GOP tossup state but has a very unpopular GOP governor. What do you call the guy who paid the biggest fine for Medicaid fraud? Florida Governor Rick Scott! The state Dems in Florida has really pathetic.
NC (15): The Democratic convention is being held in Charlotte. This is likely going to be a close battle. Like many states of the New South, NC has many northern transplants who are much more friendly towards Team Blue. This will be a very hard fought state.
Ohio (18): No Republican can win the White House without Ohio. Ohio is a very diverse state from its manufacturing base in eastern Ohio to its evangelical base in Western Ohio. It has big cities, small towns, dying towns, thriving towns, and everything in between. Obama is lucky that Ohio's governor is not very popular. However, this state seems to always have sob stories when it comes to the economy.
VA (13): Same description as NC.
WI (10): This is going to be a very hotly contested race. While Wisconsin has been a blue state since the 1988 election, the state politics of Wisconsin will be explosive in a super competitive way. Anti-working class, pro-labor market efficiency, pro-labor getting poorer governor, Scott Walker, is facing a recall effort by the Dems. Lots of money will be coming in from both sides including the oil-magnates Koch brothers, who will likely also attack Obama. Don't be surprised if Obama wins Wisconsin by 9 points or if Obama loses Wisconsin narrowly.
IA (6): Obama's poll numbers have been pretty bad lately, probably because the GOP spent heavily there during their caucus. Don't be surprised if Obama's chances improve and he wins by 10 points in this state.
NV (6): I would expect the Dems to typically carry NV given their current coalition priorities. However, this year will be tough given the struggles of NV's economy and housing market.
NH (4): NH is where all of the Republicans in the Northeast to get away from all the liberals.
Here is my prediction as of today.
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