Great News: Curious Capitalist was 2 for 2 in predictions for MI and AZ.
Here is a dumb but funny quote: "When Mitt Romney says his campaign is about saving the soul of the country, he means posthumously baptizing all of us."
Much more is available below.
Arizona: Romney won, no one contested the state. There was a large Mormon population in Arizona and it was a winner take all state. Romney won by a decidedly large margin and got all 29 delegates.
Michigan: This was a must win for Romney. It was his home state and a state he won in 2008, as well as a state he poured a lot of money into. Conventional wisdom stated that Romney should have won by a large margin. However, Rick Santorum provided a spirited challenge. Unfortunately for Santorum, expectations were such that a second place, even a close second, was a disappointment. Now the party elders, the talking heads on FoxNews, and the elites think he's done. Expectations might have been too high for Santorum.
As for the delegate count, 30 delegates are at play in Michigan (2 assigned to the winner statewide, 2 to the winner of each congressional district). At this point the delegates could go from anywhere from Romney-22, Santorum-8 to Romney-12, Santorum-18. However, Mittens already has a big lead in committed delegates.
It's difficult to feel good about this one for Santorum. He likely faced some backlash with MI GOP votes for encouraging Democrats to vote in the GOP primary. The expectations were such that Santorum had to win Michigan to win the night. Given that the other state voting in the same day was a blowout for Romney, it's not good. Perhaps the most damaging part of the evening for Santorum is that he lost the small amount of faith and confidence that he had with the powerful establishment of the GOP. It is looking very unlikely that Santorum will be able to get a majority of the delegates which makes his odds of getting the nomination very difficult.
While Romney has shown he couldn't close the deal earlier in the campaign cycle, he won when it mattered: in Florida and now in Michigan. Santorum spent this time as a co-front runner and could not seal the deal. Romney has been extremely fortunate in the campaign calender. He had Florida, which have a lot of moderate-conservative Northeast transplants and not as many evangelicals, when he really needed a win. Then he had his home state, Michigan, when he needed a win later.
So you might ask yourself, where do we go from here? Many of my friends say that Santorum is done. I'm not so sure. Santorum's continued viability rests on his ability to keep Gingrich down as the main conservative alternative to Romney. Romney lost very conservative voters (about 30% of the electorate in MI) 50% to 33% to Santorum.
Washington state is on Saturday, March 3rd: This is Santorum's chance to regain momentum. Washington recently passed gay marriage which should motivate social conservatives to be more politically active. If Romney wins, it will be ugly for Santorum. Since this is a caucus state and Santorum won 3 of them, he has a chance. Perhaps a 35% chance.
The two states on Super Tuesday that are very important on Super Tuesday are Ohio and Tennessee. In Ohio, Santorum needs to beat Romney. Santorum needs to pick up some delegates and beat Romney in this large state. Ohio is more favorable territory to Santorum than Michigan, although Romney now has the momentum. If Romney wins Ohio, its over. While Santorum has had the lead in Ohio for a while, a full 45% of voters there said they could change their minds between now and Super Tuesday. Romney's momentum from Michigan can only hurt Santorum.
In Tennessee, there will be a contest between Santorum and Gingrich. In order to remain viable Santorum needs to be thought of as the main conservative rival to Romney. Gingrich will likely win Georgia, his home state. He is banking on Georgia as a way of propelling himself to a victory in Tennessee and other southern states which will vote later. If Gingrich beats Santorum in Tennessee and possibly, Oklahoma, this will make it more unclear on who is Romney's main rival. Santorum needs to fight a multi-front battle coming up to have a chance. Given his previous blunders and lack of financial resources, it will be a heavy challenge.
Santorum's dream scenario would be to win the Washington state caucuses, build momentum, and then win Ohio. Santorum could also compete in Georgia if he wants to knockout Gingrich out of the race. Santorum needs Gingrich to drop out as well.
For Mitt "Mittens" Romney, he's got to close the deal. Romney slept on the ball the last time he was in this position (after Nevada), when he simply ignored CO, MN, and MO and wound up losing all three. Romney needs to shut this thing down with a win in the WA state caucuses and the Ohio primary. WA is the only state between now and Super Tuesday and a Romney win will give him the momentum heading into Ohio. He'll get other wins in Virginia, Massachusetts, and Vermont to make Super Tuesday a respectable showing even if he wins no other states besides those three and Ohio.
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