Administrative Update and A Request!

Administrative Update
After less than a month of starting my blog, I already have 2,500 pageviews.  I have had visitors from the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, the U.K., and Singapore.  Within the U.S., I have readers from 14 states (NY, VA, WA, MA, NC, SC, FL, LA, CA, OR, AK, NJ, MN, CO) and D.C. 

The blog is also making its way up the Google search engine hierarchy. 

Thank you so much for this and your continued support!

Request:  Spread the Word!!
If you think this blog is great/intellectually informative and is worth sharing with the world, please do...facebook, world of mouth, twitter, gmail...whatever you are comfortable/willing to do.  It would really help me out.

My goals for this blog are to: (1) cut across the partisan cacophony and separate the merit-based arguments from the pre-textual/frivolous arguments in our political debate, (2) share some interesting societal trends which are not covered by the mainstream media, (3) share alternative explanations for many of today's social phenomena and (4) share interesting financial ideas for yuppies.

I would like to share my knowledge and insights with the world.  Regardless, I really appreciate the support you have shown me already.

Please try NOT to use my real name if you know who I am.  As shown by this post and this guy, real progress in our information-saturated world require anonymity.  This is why I have anonymous commenting.

Super Tuesday Live Blog Thread #1

7:53 pm EST:  Starting a new thread.

7:52 pm EST:  Romney is currently third in Georgia, but none of Romney's best areas in the Atlanta suburbs have come in.

7:50 pm EST:  Gingrich and Paul are likely shut out of any delegates in Ohio.

7:49 pm EST:  Santorum is in danger of not getting any statewide delegates from Georgia (not including delegates by congressional district).  He needs to clear the 20% mark statewide to get any delegates.

7:47 pm EST:  In the delegate front:  Romney likely won't shut out his competitors in Vermont.  Romney should win about half of Vermont's 17 delegates with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum splitting the rest.

7:44 pm EST:  Team Romney is likely to be very happy for tonight.  They are accumulating delegates and widening their delegate lead over Gingrich and Santorum.  Even under the worst case scenarios, Romney will win more "bound" delegates tonight than either Gingrich and Santorum.

7:42 pm EST:  Team Romney is outspending Team Santorum 5 to 1 for Super Tuesday states...yikes.  American Democracy at work.  If both candidates had the same amount of money to spend this race could be vastly different.

7:40 pm EST:  Curious Capitalist is 3 for 3 in predictions so far for Super Tuesday  (5 for 6 overall). 

7:37 pm EST: Vermont has just been called for Romney.

7:34 pm EST:  Vermont, what was once thought as a slam dunk victory for Romney is still too close to call.  He could still win easily, but it is still too early to call.

7:28 pm EST:  The lack of Democratic primaries this season has a curious effect on the electorate of the Republican primary.  A greater proportion of Republican primary/caucus voters identify as moderate/liberal.  Conservatives are having slightly less of a say in the Republican nomination.  This likely helps out Mitt Romney and Ron Paul generally.  It might help Santorum in situations where Democrats are voting strategically to influence the Republican nomination.

7:25 pm EST:  Ron Paul is slated to win about 40% of the vote in Virginia to Romney's 60% according to the exit poll data.

7:18 pm EST:  Virginia was just called for Romney.  He will a majority of the votes which means he will get all of Virginia's statewide delegates at stake. Ron Paul could still win delegates for those assigned at the congressional district level.

7:17 pm EST:  Gingrich has just won his mandate to stay in the race with a massive win in Georgia, the state with the most delegates on Super Tuesday.  If the media called it this early, the victory margin will likely be very substantial.

4:40 pm EST:  Results start pouring in around 7pm EST.  Here is a list of when polls close (all times Eastern)

Georgia: 7 pm
Vermont: 7 pm
Virginia: 7 pm
Ohio: 7:30 pm
Tennessee: 8 pm
Oklahoma: 8 pm
Massachusetts: 8 pm
Idaho: 10 pm
North Dakota: 10 pm
Alaska: 12 am

This means that Gingrich and Romney should be getting favorable press coverage at 7pm.  Then, it's most important 3 states of the evening (OH, TN, OK).  Look for some Ron Paul speech about how he is accumulating delegates out of ID, ND, and AK late in the evening.

2:51 pm EST:  It is Super Tuesday.  Before the polls close and the results come in let me just summarize what would be a win and what would be a loss for each candidate.

Mitt "Mittens" Romney
Super Win: win Ohio and Tennessee
Win: win Ohio
Neutral: lose Ohio and win a majority of delegates
Very Mild Loss: lose Ohio and don't win a majority of delegates

"My Boy" Rick Santorum
Win: win Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma
Lose: lose Ohio, Tennessee
Super Lose: lose Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma

Newt Gingrich
Super Win: win Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma
Win: win Georgia, Tennesee
Gets to stay in the race: win Georgia

Ron Paul
Win: get a lot of delegates (more than 50)
Lose: don't get a lot of delegates (less than 15)

Barack Obama
Win: Santorum wins
Lose: Romney wins

A Destructive Human Desire

This problem is our constant desire to feel dominance over others.  This feeling that all of us have can explain so many of the world's problems: (1) hazing, (2) rape, (3) condescending moral arguments, (4) war, (5) racism, (6) bigotry, (7) "mean girls", (8) bullying, (9) Columbia students thinking that they are so much smarter than Barnard students (and then getting mad that the Barnard Diploma also says "Columbia" on it), (10) a desire to compare penis sizes, and (11) a lot of other problems. 

This desire is connected to the need to feel some sort of superiority over others. For those Maslow fans out there, this desire stems from our need to have esteem among our peers and also from our need to have a sense of achievement.

These related feelings are natural and should not be completely condemned.  However, we need to channel those feelings in ways that do not harm and disrespect others.

Here are some potential solutions:

Logic Gone Wild: Socialized Medicine

Against socialized medicine?

Let's put an end to health insurance which pools risk among many individuals.  Such socialized vehicles of risk motivate people to get injured and sick so that they take more from those who pay in.  Health insurance is socialized medicine.  Health insurance also over encourages the use of medical services beyond what is efficient for the market since people do not bear the true cost of what they directly consume.  Therefore, people will over consume because they don't have to pay for the full cost directly.  This increased demand artificially raises prices.  Why can't we have a true free market system where people by medical services like they buy hamburgers or apples or furniture?

Against government sponsored socialized medicine?

Song of the Day

Which View of Marriage Do You Have? Ross' or Rachel's

In an episode of Friends, when Ross discovers that Rachel is pregnant with his baby.  In an excited haze, Ross proposes marriage because children should be raised with 2 married parents.  Rachel, however, refuses and says that marriage is something that people do when they are in love, not when they have a surprise pregnancy.

So what's the main reason for marriage (because these two views are not mutually exclusive)?
The Rachel View:  As an expression of love.  This view of marriage is very friendly towards gay marriage.  Did some left-wing group pay off the Friends' writers to put the Rachel view on the air?

The Ross View:  As a way to provide children with a stable upbringing.  This view is less friendly towards gay marriage.  Did some social conservative group pay off the Friends' writers to put the Ross view on the air?

A Satrical Look at Culture War Nonsense

This is not all fun and games however.  There are many people who actually think like this.  Many women in Africa have their clitoris removed when they've hit puberty.  The reasoning being that this will motivate women not to have sex.  More than 100 million women around the world have experienced this procedure.

Bad Public Marketing for Contraception Debate

I've been paying a lot of attention to this debate.  Have you noticed that there are 0 women who are appearing on behalf of the anti-contraception side of things?  Whoever is in charge of messaging for that side of the debate needs to get fired.  All the messengers are dudes and at least half of them don't have sex.

Conspiracy Theory: Could it be that women are just more immoral than men?

A Love Affair

Some people are absolutely in love with fossil fuels and hate clean water/air laws.  However, what I really don't understand is why some people want our cities to look like this and our rivers to be like this.  Both of those links are of China.  China is rapidly growing (good), very prominent in manufacturing (good), and uses a lot of fossil fuels (good?).  Air pollution and water scarcity (the lack of clean water) are huge problems.  I like fossil fuels as much as the next guy (my ownership of COP), but come on... 

The Perverse Incentives of Impending Cap and Trade Legislation

Cap and Trade legislation has often been proposed as a way to curb carbon emissions and slow down climate change.  However, this system of handing out "pollution credits" and allowing the sale of these credits on the open market has perverse incentives for the current market.

An Awesome Song of the Day

Back to the girly songs.

Congress: The New Normal

Under the new normal of hyper-partisanship and pro-nut job politics, there lies a hope for the future.  Right now a small group of lawmakers are trying to stop this nation from committing financial suicide. YAY!  Maybe we're not totally doomed?

The only reason why they are even allowed to negotiate without outside groups going bat-shit crazy is because of secrecy.

There you go folks, the new way to get stuff is secrecy!   Some might decry the end of open democracy.  Open democracy also means the most passionate (nut-jobish) people/entities have the most influence since they are the ones who care the most.  Yikes...

Song of the Day

A non-girly song day.  This guy is the new normal in the GOP...not because of this song, because of this badly reasoned pro-Iraq War song.  Don't blame him though, he just got confused by Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.

A Curious Story on the Subway

During my subway ride home the other day, a couple of ladies were passing out fliers.  The fliers decry how hundreds of thousands of unionized postal workers will likely lose their jobs.  The two women went on a rant about the destruction of good wage jobs and aimed the blame at "privatization" and Wall Street (the same Wall Street that had profits drop by a lot).  The United States Postal Service is losing billions of dollars.  With the increase of email, traditional mail usage has plummeted.  The bottom line is that those postal worker jobs are just not needed any more for our economy.  Keeping those jobs would be extremely inefficient and a poor use of resources, especially government money.

More on Rush Limbaugh reasoning

On Health Insurance: why are we paying for other people to get injured or sick?

On Car Insurance: why are we paying other people to get in car accidents?

On Home Insurance: why are we paying for other people to get their houses robbed?

On Flood Insurance: why are we paying other people to get their homes flooded?

On Dental Insurance: why are we paying for kids to get cavities?

Washington Caucus Results and Prediction Revisions

Mitt Romney will win the Washington State Caucuses.

I got that prediction wrong, which makes me 2 of 3 overall.

Also, I am changing my prediction of Ohio from Santorum to Romney given Romney's recent momentum.

2012 GOP Washington State Caucuses Today

For live results coming in, click here.  They should start coming in about 8pm Eastern/5pm Pacific.

UPDATE: Republican voters turned away by Republican party officials after voting venue becomes over-crowded.  About 1,500 voters were turned away in Kennewick, WA.  This is in Eastern Washington and is likely bad news for Rick Santorum.  These caucus problems are getting uglier and uglier.  Will there be a constitutional violation challenge?

UPDATE #2:  The voters who were turned away were in Benton County, a county where Romney won easily.  The person who lost the most from the turned-away voters was likely Romney.

Song of the Day

Justin Bieber sounded a lot better before he hit puberty.

Also, Luda!

Financial Investment: Stock Picking-the first thing you should do

Read Annual Reports...

What are annual reports?
They are the 10-K filings that every public company in the United States has to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

Where can I find annual reports?
Here, they are available online for free.  Courtesy of your tax dollars.  There are sites that offer this info for a fee, don't encourage that economic behavior.

Why should I read annual reports?
It's what research analysts do.  It's what Warren Buffett does. It's what all investment professionals do. It gives you all the important info about the business.  If you read the annual reports first without anything else, you will help yourself make a non-biased valuation.

What should I look for when I'm reading?

The Truth of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Maslow's hierarchy of needs is quite possibly the most brilliant theory on human behavior ever.  The human mind and brain are complex and have parallel processes running at the same time, so many different motivations from different levels of Maslow's pyramid usually occur at the same time. Maslow was clear about speaking of these levels and their satisfaction in terms such as "relative" and "general" and "primarily", and says that the human organism is "dominated" by a certain need.  The dominant need is the highest (most complex) level of need that has not been met yet.

Here is summary of the different layers of needs: from most basic to most complex
1.  Physiological Needs: Food, Shelter, Air, Sleep
Without these, we can't live...let alone think about happiness.

Song of the Day

Perhaps my favorite Adele song!

What an idiot

What an idiot.

Political Arguments: A Market-based Test for Truth

How do you know if something is true or not?  Look to the public markets in liquid assets.

Why are the public markets for liquid assets a good test for truth?
1.  A lot of people are participating in the public markets.   A lot of people trying to figure something out is usually better than a small group of people.
2.  Public markets allow a lot of people to express their opinions with the movement of money.
3.  Most actors in the financial markets have a fiduciary duty to someone else to maximize profits.  Therefore, actors who don't invest purely for financial gain could get sued and lose.  This makes people more honest in their activity with the market.

If this explanation doesn't convince you, check out these examples:

Mitt Romney won the Wyoming Caucuses?

News came out 2/29/2012 that Mittens won the Wyoming caucuses.  There was no mention of these going on in news sites and Wikipedia.

Is this further proof that Wyoming doesn't matter?

Song of the Day

This video is very suggestive.

Great News from Michigan

Rick Santorum is splitting the delegates 15-15 with Mitt Romney in Michigan.

UPDATE: The Michigan GOP has changed it to 16-14 Mittens.

Snooki is Pregnant!!!!

Snooki is part of the greater trend of pregnancy out of wedlock.  Right now, a majority of children born to women under 30 are out of wedlock. 

This kid is going to get teased a lot in school.

As one of my law school friends said: "Snooki getting pregnant is the moment that our nation comes together."

2012 General Election Preview: The Presidential Map as of 2/29

We're a little over 8 months away from the 2012 Presidential Election.  I've decided to do my first preview of the general election map.  Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and then.  Even though the Republican nominee has not been picked yet, the identity of the nominee won't affect the map too much.

My Ratings:
Solid Blue/Red: states that are not going to be contested at all
Lean Blue/Red: one party is favored but could easily lose
Tossup: its completely up for grabs

Review of MI and AZ primaries & Santorum's future

Great News: Curious Capitalist was 2 for 2 in predictions for MI and AZ. 

Here is a dumb but funny quote: "When Mitt Romney says his campaign is about saving the soul of the country, he means posthumously baptizing all of us."

Much more is available below.

Financial Investment: Where you should NEVER get your stock advice

Top 10 lists of stock picks from "leading experts".

These articles on top ten stock picks usually appear on legitimate news sites such as CNNMoney, Yahoo news, Forbes, MarketWatch, other places that have an aura of journalistic expertise.  Here are some examples: here, here, and here.  These articles are generally pretty well written and the recommendations sound like they are based upon sound reasoning.  So why am I telling you to not follow this advice?