7:53 pm EST: Starting a new thread.
7:52 pm EST: Romney is currently third in Georgia, but none of Romney's best areas in the Atlanta suburbs have come in.
7:50 pm EST: Gingrich and Paul are likely shut out of any delegates in Ohio.
7:49 pm EST: Santorum is in danger of not getting any statewide delegates from Georgia (not including delegates by congressional district). He needs to clear the 20% mark statewide to get any delegates.
7:47 pm EST: In the delegate front: Romney likely won't shut out his competitors in Vermont. Romney should win about half of Vermont's 17 delegates with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum splitting the rest.
7:44 pm EST: Team Romney is likely to be very happy for tonight. They are accumulating delegates and widening their delegate lead over Gingrich and Santorum. Even under the worst case scenarios, Romney will win more "bound" delegates tonight than either Gingrich and Santorum.
7:42 pm EST: Team Romney is outspending Team Santorum 5 to 1 for Super Tuesday states...yikes. American Democracy at work. If both candidates had the same amount of money to spend this race could be vastly different.
7:40 pm EST: Curious Capitalist is 3 for 3 in predictions so far for Super Tuesday (5 for 6 overall).
7:37 pm EST: Vermont has just been called for Romney.
7:34 pm EST: Vermont, what was once thought as a slam dunk victory for Romney is still too close to call. He could still win easily, but it is still too early to call.
7:28 pm EST: The lack of Democratic primaries this season has a curious effect on the electorate of the Republican primary. A greater proportion of Republican primary/caucus voters identify as moderate/liberal. Conservatives are having slightly less of a say in the Republican nomination. This likely helps out Mitt Romney and Ron Paul generally. It might help Santorum in situations where Democrats are voting strategically to influence the Republican nomination.
7:25 pm EST: Ron Paul is slated to win about 40% of the vote in Virginia to Romney's 60% according to the exit poll data.
7:18 pm EST: Virginia was just called for Romney. He will a majority of the votes which means he will get all of Virginia's statewide delegates at stake. Ron Paul could still win delegates for those assigned at the congressional district level.
7:17 pm EST: Gingrich has just won his mandate to stay in the race with a massive win in Georgia, the state with the most delegates on Super Tuesday. If the media called it this early, the victory margin will likely be very substantial.
4:40 pm EST: Results start pouring in around 7pm EST. Here is a list of when polls close (all times Eastern)
Georgia: 7 pm
Vermont: 7 pm
Virginia: 7 pm
Ohio: 7:30 pm
Tennessee: 8 pm
Oklahoma: 8 pm
Massachusetts: 8 pm
Idaho: 10 pm
North Dakota: 10 pm
Alaska: 12 am
This means that Gingrich and Romney should be getting favorable press coverage at 7pm. Then, it's most important 3 states of the evening (OH, TN, OK). Look for some Ron Paul speech about how he is accumulating delegates out of ID, ND, and AK late in the evening.
2:51 pm EST: It is Super Tuesday. Before the polls close and the results come in let me just summarize what would be a win and what would be a loss for each candidate.
Mitt "Mittens" Romney
Super Win: win Ohio and Tennessee
Win: win Ohio
Neutral: lose Ohio and win a majority of delegates
Very Mild Loss: lose Ohio and don't win a majority of delegates
"My Boy" Rick Santorum
Win: win Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma
Lose: lose Ohio, Tennessee
Super Lose: lose Ohio, Tennessee, Oklahoma
Newt Gingrich
Super Win: win Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma
Win: win Georgia, Tennesee
Gets to stay in the race: win Georgia
Ron Paul
Win: get a lot of delegates (more than 50)
Lose: don't get a lot of delegates (less than 15)
Barack Obama
Win: Santorum wins
Lose: Romney wins
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