Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Super Tuesday: Winners and Losers

Winners
1.  Curious Capitalist:  got his predictions spot on for everything that mattered last night.  Overall I've called 11 out of 13 races accurately...correctly calling Ohio and Michigan and incorrectly calling smaller caucuses (much more difficult) in Alaska and Washington.
2.  Barack Obama:  the Republican contest will continue, so the guns will not be aimed squarely at Obama.  Obama might have the best shot against Romney, as opposed to Santorum.  I am of this persuasion now.
3.  Mitt Romney:  he won Ohio and padded his delegate lead.  It is very difficult for either Santorum and Gingrich to have a path to a majority of delegates.  Ohio was very close.  Romney has spent a lot of money and still can't land the knockout punch.  Romney is not winning well and is bleeding money, unfortunately.  However, he did get 6 wins on Super Tuesday and has a seemingly insurmountable lead in delegates even if he doesn't get a majority.  The most important win for Romney is Gingrich staying in the race and winning Georgia.

Neither Winners nor Losers
1.  Rick Santorum:  He won some key states such as OK and TN.  However, he didn't win OH and while he came close, close doesn't cut it in this cutthroat world.  The reason Santorum isn't a winner is because Gingrich is not dropping out.  Santorum will have to use some of his precious resources to butt heads with Gingrich in Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi.  Gingrich got 15% in Ohio, in a state that Romney barely won.  Gingrich is spoiling Santorum's potential.  I really feel bad for Santorum because he is not fighting on a fair playing field.  He is being outspent by Romney by many multiples and money obviously matters.
2.  Newt Gingrich:  Gingrich won GA and nothing else.  He has no path to victory but gets to stay in the race.  Also, see conspiracy theory.  Gingrich didn't even have any second place finishes in the evening.  Essentially, he did well in his home state and no where else.


To quote Rick Perry: "no one won tonight", although I think Mitt Romney won the evening

Losers
1.  Ron Paul:  he is not going to win any state.  He could have made a serious play in Virginia and decided too punt it entirely.  His delegate count is lagging behind all of the other candidates.

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