Illinois is next important contest. There are the Missouri caucuses and the Puerto Rico primary before Illinois, but they are significantly less important.
The Illinois primary is coming up on Tuesday, 3/20/2012 and presents the best chance for Santorum to completely turn the tables on Romney. This is basically like Michigan and Ohio. Here are the two most important factors each candidate has going for them.
For Romney: 70% of the vote is expected to come from Chicago and the surrounding suburbs. Romney's best areas in a state are urban and suburban areas (see Mississippi, Alabama, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan). This is a very big advantage. Santorum will have to compete in the collar counties around Chicago in order to have a change since downstate voters only represent 30% of all voters.
For Santorum: In past states where Romney had to win (Ohio, Florida), he had an opportunity to build momentum. In Florida, it was the debate. In Ohio, it was Romney's victories in Michigan and Arizona. Romney has no such event this time around. In fact, Santorum has the momentum from his unexpected victories in Mississippi and Alabama.
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