How the Democrats will benefit if the health care mandate is struck down

In case people don't know, the Supreme Court is currently deciding on the constitutionality of the health insurance mandate of the Affordable Care Act.  Democrats are generally thought to support the mandate's constitutionality and Republicans...the opposite position.  Here's why striking down the health care mandate will actually help the Democrats:

In fact, I do think that the Dems will be a lot better off politically if  the mandate is shot down.  Smart conservatives like Erick Erickson (why would you name your kid this?) of Redstate.com know this.

1.  Democratic enthusiasm for 2012 will be up
Nothing galvanizes the party faithful more than a controversial victory by the other side.  Democrats will be as enthused as ever to support President Obama, Dem candidates up and down the ballot.  This enthusiasm will come in the form of monetary donations, volunteering for campaigns, and voter turnout.  Obama wants to capture his 2008 magic again, this is basically the main way that can happen.

2.  Republican enthusiasm for 2012 will be down
Given how the economy will be improving.  Republicans will have lost 2 of their top 3 issues (no economy, no health care, they will still have gas prices).  Without health care to go crazy over and the non-stimulating Mittens Romney at the top of the ticket, conservative activism will not have as much energy as it could have.

Reasons 1 and 2 will not matter IF the Supreme Court hands down its ruling post-election, which it has the right to do.

3.  Republicans will own the upcoming health care debacle
Believe me it is a clusterfuck now and it will be megaclusterfuck soon.  There is a real problem in this country, too many people don't have health insurance...more and more people are losing health insurance and the cost of healthcare is escalating.  10 years ago, about 70% of people got insurance from their employers...now it's about 60%...yikes...that is not a good trend considering how dependent most people are on employer provided health insurance.  Also, according to my medical student friend, most Americans have pretty crappy health insurance and don't realize just how fucked they are if they get really sick.  Still, costs are going up and there's no sign of this changing...which can only mean more and more people are going to lose their employer provided health insurance.

With the Democrats turning the ball over with a Supreme Court loss, the GOP will be in charge of this nonsense.  Like gas prices and the economy, there is little a government can do to stem this tide. The GOP, likes to entertain the notion of market-based solutions...well...the current situation is what the market came up with...  Now, I like to fancy myself as a connoisseur of markets and the current Affordable Care Act is the market-based solution.  In fact, this kind of mandate system was advocated by the Republicans of the 90s and by the very conservative Heritage Foundation think tank.  This might be the beginning of the path to the public, single-payer health care system of the U.S.  Just remember when this happens in 10-20 years...you saw it here first!

Of course this point will be moot if the Supremes vote for the mandate...but it's not looking like it...  The bottom line is people need health insurance at some point in their lives and not having it is not a good thing cause you don't when disaster strikes.

Texas has been under Republican stewardship for a while...about 1 in 4 Texans aren't insured...  How have the GOP been so successful at keeping people who can't afford health insurance off the rolls???

Here is a quote from David Frum, economic speech writer from W's presidency...the dude's brilliant IMO:  Though Republicans are hoping the U.S. Supreme Court declares President Obama's health care law unconstitutional, David Frum points out the GOP has no alternative and says they will be punished for it by voters.

"Republicans will need a Plan B. Unfortunately, they wasted the past three years that might have developed one. If the Supreme Court doesn't rescue them from themselves, they'll be heading into this election season arguing, in effect, Our plan is to take away the government-mandated insurance of millions of people under age 65, and replace it with nothing. And we're doing this so as to better protect the government-mandated insurance of people over 65 -- until we begin to phase out that insurance, too, for everybody now under 55."

The Dems will be off the hook when their plan fails to lower costs substantially.

The current situation reminds me a lot of the 2004 election.  George W. Bush won and took ownership over the upcoming clusterfuck that happened in Iraq and in the markets.  In case you forgot, the Dems won big time in 2006 and 2008, took ownership over the clusterfuck economy and lost big time in 2010.  Politics is about not taking ownership over clusterfucks.