Saturday, March 10, 2012

How to be a Prosperous Nation with Energy

Step 1: Determine where your strengths are (i.e. natural resources, human capital).

Step 2: Translate those strengths to systems and processes that the world can't live without.

Step 3: Get the rest of the world to adopt said systems.

Here's an illustrative example that turns into a babbling, true story.
The U.S. was once really rich in oil. It used oil powered cars, oil powered power plants, and basically oil everything. The rest of the world began to run on oil.  The U.S. had a lot of it.   The U.S. economic pie was growing and pretty much everybody was sharing in the wealth.  YAY!!!!  The end right? . . . Nope, U.S. oil production peaked in 1971 and now we only have 2% of the world's proven oil reserves while we have 25% of the world's consumption.  Since the early 1970s, real income growth for middle and working class people has been stagnant.  One of my really smart professors thinks it was because of the shift in energy power.  Now, many other countries have us by the bal*s.  Its as simple as that.  We helped this situation a little by using domestic coal for most of our power generation needs.  However, cars and most of our transportation systems run on oil. 

If we keep on relying on oil, we're headed towards energy suicide.  Things are not going to get better, they are going to get worse.  Unlike what Newt Gingrich said, America is not on the road to long-term prosperity by drilling for more oil.

Right-wingers want drill-baby-drill...the only good thing about drill-baby-drill is its use as a porno title.  The U.S. has only 2% of the world's proven oil reserves.  Right-wingers say there is a lot more out there that hasn't been discovered.  This is an insult against capitalism.  There have been many pro-exploration regimes since the 1970s and so many private companies competing for profits trying to find new reserves.  If ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, and Chevron can't find oil reserves at a faster rate in America, it's probably because there are no huge amounts of oil that are realistically attainable in America.

Many Left-wingers bring up conservation as a goal.  While conservation is generally good and people should not waste resources, only a form of mandatory conservation would be effective (since we have lots of pro-conservation campaigns, yet energy consumption continues to skyrocket).  However, mandatory conservation would cost a lot to administer and would inhibit economy growth.  Left-wingers often miss the message that collective sacrifice and anti-growth narratives are losers politically.

It is important to note that the impetus for change is hardship in a capitalist economy.  In a capitalist economy, change cannot be forced by a central entity but rather has to be changed with market forces such as high prices.  People don't change when the going is good.  People learn the most when they get knocked down and from the fear of being knocked down.  For example, the most technological advances happen during wartime.  Ever wonder why Americans are consuming and importing less oil than they used to in the mid-2000s?  (No, because everyone knows that with higher prices comes less driving)  Unfortunately, I foresee gas prices skyrocketing some time during the future due to increased demand from emerging economies.  Right now, we are in the business of coddling our energy industry, thereby creating comfort and being against technological change.

An new opportunity for American dominance in energy has emerged in the world's new stimulus for alternative energy such as geothermal, solar, and wind.  If American companies can develop the best expertise and best products for these alternative sources of energy, other countries will follow given the almost universal demand for clean energy across the world.  Like the Japanese with TVs, America can once again dominate with energy.  However, this is much easier said than done.  Solar and wind have been promoted since 1970s and little progress seems to have been made.  

There are notable problems with both wind and solar but we are beginning to turn the corner.  The biggest complaints are often that solar and wind are too expensive and cannot be done on a large scale.  In the world of wind, Brazilian wind is now more cost effective than natural gas (and natural gas isn't expensive).  This is because the Brazilian shorelines are very windy.  In many places in the United States, there are places which are just as windy.  There is no reason why wind can't be just as effective in the U.S. as in Brazil.

The cost of solar generated energy has plummeted.  How do I know?  Well, click here.  Solar stocks have taken a pounding in the market.  You know why? There is a "supply glut".  Supply glut is an industry term for prices are plummeting.  Solar stocks are declining because prices are coming down big time and solar's profit margin is going down.  This means that solar is becoming much more price competitive.  The U.S. seems to be content with China being the leader in solar power however.  The U.S. claims that China is unfairly subsidizing their solar industry.  However, the U.S. needs to calm down, if New York and Chicago look as shitty as Beijing and Shanghai, wouldn't you want to wean your country off of coal and onto solar ASAP and not give a crap about "unfair subsidies".

Here is a joke about Chinese pollution:
A: How was your trip to Beijing?
B: It was great.  There were 6 days where the sky was kind of blue.
A: It was only sunny for 6 days?
B: No, it was sunny for 22 days.

There is a lot of hope.  Also, this guy is an idiot.

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